{"id":1125,"date":"2025-10-21T10:44:03","date_gmt":"2025-10-21T10:44:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.ngocha.biz\/?p=1125"},"modified":"2026-05-27T18:22:37","modified_gmt":"2026-05-27T18:22:37","slug":"chi-bao-dao-dong-stochastic","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.ngocha.biz\/?p=1125","title":{"rendered":"Ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o dao \u0111\u1ed9ng Stochastic"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n \n<\/presto-player>\n<\/figure>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

Stochastic l\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o dao \u0111\u1ed9ng. Ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o dao \u0111\u1ed9ng nh\u1eb1m x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 thay \u0111\u1ed5i c\u1ee7a gi\u00e1, t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng qu\u00e1 mua qu\u00e1 b\u00e1n, kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng \u0111\u1ea3o chi\u1ec1u, ph\u00e2n k\u1ef3 \u00e2m d\u01b0\u01a1ng.<\/p>\n

Ph\u00eda d\u01b0\u1edbi l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3 th\u1ecb c\u1ee7a CTD v\u1edbi ch\u1ec9 b\u00e1o dao \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean Stochastic<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n

Chi b\u00e1o dao \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1eabu nhi\u00eau bao g\u1ed3m hai \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 %K v\u00e0 %D.<\/p>\n

\u0110\u01b0\u1eddng %K = (Gi\u00e1 h\u00f4m nay – Gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t (14))\/(Gi\u00e1 cao nh\u1ea5t (14) – Gi\u00e1 th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t(14)<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0110\u1eebng lo l\u1eafng khi nh\u00ecn c\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c; h\u00e3y xem v\u00ed d\u1ee5 ph\u00eda d\u01b0\u1edbi b\u1ea1n s\u1ebd th\u1ea5y n\u00f3 r\u1ea5t d\u1ec5 hi\u1ec3u<\/mark><\/p>\n

14 l\u00e0 14 ng\u00e0y, gi\u1edd, ph\u00fat,…t\u00f9y thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ed3 th\u1ecb xem l\u00e0 khung th\u1eddi gian n\u00e0o. 14 l\u00e0 s\u1ed1 m\u1eb7c \u0111\u1ecbnh; c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n

\u1ede v\u00ed d\u1ee5 CTD tr\u00ean: Gi\u00e1 min = 78.000; gi\u00e1 Max = 88.700; gi\u00e1 h\u00f4m nay l\u00e0 84.000\u0111 -> %K= ( 84.000-78.000)\/(88.700-78.000) = 6000\/10.700 = 56%. \u00dd ngh\u0129a l\u00e0 gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i b\u1eb1ng bao nhi\u00eau % so v\u1edbi kho\u1ea3ng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng gi\u00e1 trong 14 phi\u00ean qua (t\u1eeb gi\u00e1 min t\u1edbi gi\u00e1 max). Gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a CTD \u0111ang b\u1eb1ng 56% c\u1ee7a kho\u1ea3ng bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng 10.700\u0111 trong 14 phi\u00ean qua. N\u1ebfu gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a CTD l\u00e0 78.000\u0111 th\u00ec %K=0%; n\u1ebfu CTD=88.700\u0111 th\u00ec %D = 100%. Th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n 78.000 s\u1ebd t\u1ea1o s\u1ed1 \u00e2m v\u00e0 l\u1edbn h\u01a1n 88.700 s\u1ebd l\u1edbn h\u01a1n 100%.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n

%K bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng khi n\u00e0o?<\/strong><\/p>\n

    \n
  • Khi m\u1ed9t gi\u00e1 min, max b\u1ecb \u0111\u1ea9y ra kh\u1ecfi khung 14 ng\u00e0y.<\/li>\n
  • Khi m\u1ed9t gi\u00e1 min, max m\u1edbi \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh<\/li>\n
  • Khi gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng: gi\u00e1 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i t\u0103ng so v\u1edbi ng\u00e0y h\u00f4m qua n\u00f3 h\u01b0\u1edbng l\u00ean v\u00e0 th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n n\u00f3 h\u01b0\u1edbng xu\u1ed1ng.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    %K c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t l\u00ean 100% v\u00e0 c\u0169ng c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 xu\u1ed1ng \u00e2m %. % c\u00e0ng cao th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n l\u1ef1c mua c\u00e0ng m\u1ea1nh; n\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 v\u01b0\u1ee3t l\u00ean v\u00f9ng qu\u00e1 mua 80% v\u00e0 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111i l\u00ean tr\u00ean 100%. \u1ede chi\u1ec1u ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i n\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u00e2m qua 20% (ranh r\u1edbi c\u1ee7a qu\u00e1 b\u00e1n) v\u00e0 \u0111i ti\u1ebfp t\u1edbi 0% (n\u1ebfu c\u00f3 thang \u00e2m th\u00ec n\u00f3 c\u00f2n c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111i ti\u1ebfp).<\/p>\n

    Khi %K v\u01b0\u1ee3t l\u00ean tr\u00ean 80% c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u00e1 min c\u1ef1c th\u1ea5p b\u1ecb \u0111\u1ea9y ra v\u00e0 li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n gi\u00e1 max m\u1edbi. N\u00f3 ch\u1ec9 th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n r\u1eb1ng cp \u0111ang t\u0103ng m\u1ea1nh. Vi\u1ec7c x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh cp c\u00f3 \u0111ang b\u1ecb mua qu\u00e1 \u0111\u00e0 hay kh\u00f4ng c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i theo d\u00f5i nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n t\u1ea1i sao.<\/p>\n

    %D<\/strong> l\u00e0 trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a %K trong 3 phi\u00ean. %D = SMA3(%K). %D s\u1ebd l\u00e0m m\u1ec1m %K gi\u00fap lo\u1ea1i b\u1ecf c\u00e1c dao \u0111\u1ed9ng ng\u1eabu nhi\u00ean qu\u00e1 l\u1edbn trong 3 phi\u00ean li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp. %D s\u1ebd m\u1ecbn h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi %K. <\/p>\n

    Giao c\u1eaft gi\u1eefa %K v\u00e0 %D<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n

    Giao c\u1eaft v\u00e0ng: Khi %K c\u1eaft %D t\u1eeb d\u01b0\u1edbi l\u00ean \u1edf v\u00f9ng qu\u00e1 b\u00e1n<\/strong><\/p>\n

    Giao c\u1eaft t\u1eed th\u1ea7n: Khi %K c\u1eaft %D t\u1eeb tr\u00ean xu\u1ed1ng \u1edf v\u00f9ng qu\u00e1 mua<\/strong><\/p>\n

    Giao c\u1eaft gi\u1eefa %D v\u00e0 %D ch\u1eadm<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n

    %D ch\u1eadm l\u00e0 trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a %D trong 3 phi\u00ean = SMA3(%D). %D ch\u1eadm s\u1ebd ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c l\u00e0m m\u1ec1m ti\u1ebfp %D.<\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/figure>\n

    M\u1eb7c \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a Stochastic ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 hai \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng l\u00e0 %K (m\u00e0u xanh) v\u00e0 %D (m\u00e0u \u0111\u1ecf). \u0110\u1ec3 t\u1ea1o \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c %D ch\u1eadm ta ph\u1ea3i bi\u1ebfn %K th\u00e0nh %D v\u00e0 %D th\u00e0nh %D ch\u1eadm b\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch ch\u1ec9nh th\u00f4ng s\u1ed1 D trong thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp t\u1eeb 1 th\u00e0nh 3.<\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/figure>\n

    Giao c\u1eaft v\u00e0ng: Khi %D c\u1eaft %D ch\u1eadm t\u1eeb d\u01b0\u1edbi l\u00ean \u1edf v\u00f9ng qu\u00e1 b\u00e1n (\u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 vi\u1ec7c mua)<\/p>\n

    Giao c\u00e1t t\u1eed th\u1ea7n: Khi % D c\u1eaft %D ch\u1eadm t\u1eeb tr\u00ean xu\u1ed1ng \u1edf v\u00f9ng qu\u00e1 mua (\u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 vi\u1ec7c b\u00e1n)<\/p>\n

    Khi c\u00e1c giao c\u1eaft n\u00e0y di\u1ec5n ra \u1edf v\u00f9ng b\u00ecnh th\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1eeb 20% t\u1edbi 80% th\u00ec s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn b\u1eb1ng n\u00f3 di\u1ec5n ra t\u1ea1i c\u00e1c v\u00f9ng \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t (qu\u00e1 b\u00e1n v\u00e0 qu\u00e1 mua)<\/p>\n

    N\u1ebfu c\u00f3 giao c\u1eaft th\u00ec %D c\u1eaft %K s\u1edbm h\u01a1n so v\u1edbi %D c\u1eaft %D ch\u1eadm. Ch\u1eadm \u0111i \u0111\u00f4i v\u1edbi ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn h\u01a1n nh\u01b0ng hi\u1ec7u qu\u1ea3 th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n

    Ph\u00e2n k\u1ef3 %K<\/strong><\/p>\n

      \n
    • Trong m\u1ed9t xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng: Gi\u00e1 t\u1ea1o \u0111\u1ec9nh m\u1edbi nh\u01b0ng %K kh\u00f4ng t\u1ea1o \u0111\u1ec9nh m\u1edbi (ph\u00e2n k\u1ef3 \u00e2m) th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng cp s\u1ebd s\u1edbm gi\u1ea3m; \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 cho Q\u0110 b\u00e1n.<\/li>\n
    • Trong m\u1ed9t xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u1ea3m: Gi\u00e1 t\u1ea1o \u0111\u00e1y m\u1edbi nh\u01b0ng %K kh\u00f4ng t\u1ea1o \u0111\u00e1y m\u1edbi (ph\u00e2n k\u1ef3 \u00e2m) th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n n\u0103ng cp s\u1eafp t\u1ea1o \u0111\u00e1y \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 cho Q\u0110 mua.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      So s\u00e1nh gi\u1eefa Stochastic v\u00e0 MACD<\/strong><\/p>\n

      Ph\u00eda d\u01b0\u1edbi l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3 th\u1ecb c\u1ee7a TCH. Ch\u00fang ta th\u1ea5y th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u1ea3o chi\u1ec1u t\u0103ng ho\u1eb7c gi\u1ea3m th\u00ec Stochastic ph\u00e1t t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u tr\u01b0\u1edbc m\u1ed9t phi\u00ean. T\u1ea5t nhi\u00ean kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00fac n\u00e0o c\u0169ng v\u1eady; Cho t\u00edn hi\u1ec7u mua\/b\u00e1n s\u1edbm h\u01a1n th\u00ec \u0111\u1ed9 ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn c\u0169ng th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n

      \"\"<\/figure>\n

      Ph\u00eda d\u01b0\u1edbi l\u00e0 \u0111\u1ed3 th\u1ecb Vix ng\u00e0y 21\/10\/25. \u0110\u01b0\u1eddng %K \u0111\u00e3 h\u01b0\u1edbng l\u00ean trong khi \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng MACD v\u1eabn \u0111ang h\u01b0\u1edbng xu\u1ed1ng. <\/p>\n

      \"\"<\/figure>\n

      %K h\u01b0\u1edbng l\u00ean l\u00e0 v\u00ec xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n m\u1ed9t gi\u00e1 min m\u1edbi ng\u00e0y h\u00f4m nay 33.400\u0111. Ng\u00e0y h\u00f4m qua 20\/10 m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 c\u00f3 phi\u00ean gi\u1ea3m s\u00e0n nh\u01b0ng l\u1ea1i kh\u00f4ng t\u1ea1o gi\u00e1 min m\u1edbi. Nh\u01b0 v\u1eady khi ta hi\u1ec3u c\u00e1ch t\u00ednh ta s\u1ebd th\u1ea5y vi\u1ec7c %K h\u01b0\u1edbng l\u00ean l\u00fac n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i do gi\u00e1 t\u0103ng th\u00eam m\u00e0 do n\u00f3 thi\u1ebft l\u1eadp gi\u00e1 min m\u1edbi. %D th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n r\u00f5 \u0111ang \u0111\u00e2m xu\u1ed1ng. Ng\u00e0y mai c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n m\u1ed9t gi\u00e1 min m\u1edbi n\u1eefa khi\u1ebfn %K l\u1ea1i h\u01b0\u1edbng l\u00ean trong khi %D v\u1eabn \u0111\u00e2m xu\u1ed1ng; hai \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng giao nhau. MACD r\u00f5 r\u00e0ng h\u1eefu d\u1ee5ng h\u01a1n l\u00fac n\u00e0y.<\/p>\n

      \"\"<\/figure>\n
      \n
      \n

      \u0110\u01b0\u1eddng MACD<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n