{"id":1181,"date":"2025-06-27T16:20:36","date_gmt":"2025-06-27T16:20:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.ngocha.biz\/?p=1181"},"modified":"2026-05-27T18:23:16","modified_gmt":"2026-05-27T18:23:16","slug":"dau-tu-chung-khoan-p16-mau-hinh-day-w-va-dinh-m","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.ngocha.biz\/?p=1181","title":{"rendered":"\u0110\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n (P16: M\u1eabu h\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e1y W v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ec9nh M)"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n \n<\/presto-player>\n<\/figure>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

Trong m\u1ed9t th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng, c\u00e1c cp thay \u0111\u1ed5i t\u1eeb xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u1ea3m sang xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng v\u00e0 t\u1eeb xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u1ea3m sang xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng. N\u0110T c\u1ea7n x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c \u0111i\u1ec3m chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i n\u00e0y \u0111\u1ec3 ph\u1ee5c v\u1ee5 cho vi\u1ec7c ra quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh b\u00e1n hay mua. M\u1eabu h\u00ecnh W \u0111\u1ec3 x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh chuy\u1ec3n t\u1eeb xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u1ea3m sang xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng v\u00e0 m\u1eabu h\u00ecnh M x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u1eeb xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng sang xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u1ea3m s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng r\u1ea5t ph\u1ed5 bi\u1ebfn<\/p>\n

M\u00f4 h\u00ecnh W<\/strong>: Chuy\u1ec3n t\u1eeb xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u1ea3m sang xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n

V\u00ed d\u1ee5:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

Trong c\u1ea3 hai m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh n\u00e0y ta \u0111\u1ec1u th\u1ea5y b\u00f3ng d\u00e1ng m\u1eabu h\u00ecnh W trong \u0111\u00f3 \u0111\u00e1y sau (B) th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n \u0111\u00e1y tr\u01b0\u1edbc (A).<\/p>\n

V\u1ec1 l\u00fd thuy\u1ebft t\u1ea1i v\u00f9ng \u0111\u00e1y sau N\u0110T s\u1ebd c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng mua \u1edf v\u00f9ng gi\u00e1 ngang v\u1edbi \u0111\u00e1y A nh\u01b0ng gi\u00e1 l\u1ea1i v\u1eabn c\u1ee9 gi\u1ea3m khi\u1ebfn n\u0111t c\u1ee9ng \u0111\u1ea7u nh\u1ea5t c\u0169ng ph\u1ea3i b\u00e1n ra<\/p>\n

V\u1eady d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u nh\u1eadn bi\u1ebft n\u1eb1m \u1edf \u0111\u00e2u?<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ea7u ti\u00ean \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean l\u00e0 d\u1ea3i bollinger: \u0110\u00e1y A c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 n\u1eb1m trong ho\u1eb7c ngo\u00e0i d\u00e0i d\u01b0\u1edbi nh\u01b0ng \u0111\u00e1y B ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn n\u1eb1m trong d\u1ea3i d\u01b0\u1edbi.<\/strong> \u0110i\u1ec3m mua s\u1ebd l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec3m B g\u1ea7n ch\u1ea1m d\u1ea3i d\u01b0\u1edbi c\u1ee7a BB ho\u1eb7c ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 \u0111\u1ee3i cho gi\u00e1 v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua \u0111\u00e1y B nh\u1eb1m x\u00e1c nh\u1eadn ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh W. Ngo\u00e0i ra, t\u1ea1i l\u1ea7n t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ea7u ti\u00ean n\u00f3 lu\u00f4n v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a BB<\/strong> sau \u0111\u00f3 gi\u1ea3m tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n

D\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u th\u1ee9 hai l\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng trung b\u00ecnh \u0111\u1ed9ng MA. Khi v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua \u0111\u00e1y 1 n\u00f3 s\u1ebd t\u0103ng ch\u1ea1m \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng MA b\u1eadt xu\u1ed1ng th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n s\u1ef1 nghi ng\u1edd c\u1ee7a n\u0111t. \u0110\u1ed3 th\u1ecb c\u1ee7a VCG ch\u01b0a t\u1edbi MA50 m\u00e0 l\u00e0 ch\u1ea1m MA25; c\u00f2n CTD ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c ch\u1ea1m MA50. T\u1ea1i l\u1ea7n th\u1ee9 hai c\u00e1c n\u0111t \u0111\u1ec1u tin ch\u1eafc n\u00f3 s\u1ebd v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua v\u00ec v\u1eady vi\u1ec7c v\u01b0\u1ee3t qua l\u1ea7n 2 th\u01b0\u1eddng r\u1ea5t d\u1ee9t kho\u00e1t.<\/p>\n

Ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 t\u00ecm th\u1ea5y m\u1eabu h\u00ecnh W n\u00e0y \u1edf h\u1ea7u h\u1ebft c\u00e1c c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu:<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n

Trong m\u1ed9t xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u1ea3m vi\u1ec7c b\u1eaft \u0111\u00e1y l\u00e0 c\u1ef1c k\u1ef3 r\u1ee7i ro \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 \u1edf l\u1ea7n th\u1ee9 nh\u1ea5t. V\u00ec t\u1ea1i \u0111\u00e1y 1 m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 n\u0111t hy v\u1ecdng n\u00f3 t\u0103ng n\u00ean s\u1ebd mua v\u00e0o nh\u01b0ng n\u00f3 ch\u1ec9 t\u0103ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c m\u1ed9t \u0111o\u1ea1n v\u00ec r\u1ea5t nhi\u1ec1u n\u0111t sau \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ebd mu\u1ed1n c\u1eaft l\u1ed7 \u0111\u1ea9y gi\u00e1 ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c \u0111i xu\u1ed1ng. Khi cp h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh \u0111\u00e1y 2 s\u1ebd c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i xem n\u00f3 c\u00f3 ph\u1ea3i \u0111i\u1ec3m h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 t\u1ed1t trong l\u1ecbch s\u1eed kh\u00f4ng c\u00f9ng v\u1edbi c\u00e1c d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u c\u1ee7a vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u00e2y \u0111\u00fang l\u00e0 m\u1eabu h\u00ecnh W.<\/p>\n

Ngo\u00e0i m\u1eabu h\u00ecnh W th\u00ec c\u00f2n m\u1eabu h\u00ecnh U khi m\u00e0 c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu \u0111i ngang t\u00edch l\u0169y m\u1ed9t th\u1eddi gian sau \u0111\u00f3 m\u1edbi chuy\u1ec3n sang xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng (ho\u1eb7c m\u1eabu h\u00ecnh V t\u0103ng ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u00ean). Nh\u01b0ng m\u1eabu h\u00ecnh U c\u00f3 m\u1ed9t \u0111\u1eb7c \u0111i\u1ec3m l\u00e0 n\u00f3 s\u1ebd \u0111i ngang r\u1ea5t l\u00e2u \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ee9c m\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta qu\u00ean \u0111i s\u1ef1 t\u1ed3n t\u1ea1i c\u1ee7a cp \u0111\u00f3. Vi\u1ec7c mua trong m\u1ed9t pha t\u00edch l\u0169y kh\u00f4ng r\u00f5 h\u1ed3i k\u1ebft s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng t\u1ed1i \u01b0u trong vi\u1ec7c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng v\u1ed1n. Ph\u00eda d\u01b0\u1edbi HVN \u0111i ngang 3 th\u00e1ng \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0 ng\u1eafn.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n

M\u1eabu h\u00ecnh M : <\/strong>Chuy\u1ec3n t\u1eeb xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng sang xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u1ea3m<\/p>\n

Tr\u00ean TTCK N\u0110T qua l\u1ea1i v\u1edbi hai c\u1ea3m x\u00fac tham lam v\u00e0 s\u1ee3 h\u00e3i nh\u01b0ng c\u1ea3m x\u00fac s\u1ee3 h\u00e3i s\u1ebd m\u1ea1nh m\u1ebd h\u01a1n v\u00ec v\u1eady m\u1eabu h\u00ecnh W kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u1eadt ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i s\u1ebd th\u00e0nh m\u1eabu h\u00ecnh M m\u00e0 c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 kh\u00e1c nhau. T\u1ea1i \u0111\u1ec9nh N\u0110T \u0111ang c\u00f3 l\u00e3i v\u00e0 mong mu\u1ed1n ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c c\u00f3 l\u00e3i v\u00ec v\u1eady cp th\u01b0\u1eddng kh\u00f4ng l\u1eadp t\u1ee9c gi\u1ea3m m\u00e0 n\u00f3 t\u1ea1o ra m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh 2 \u0111\u1ec9nh h\u01a1\u1ea1c 3 \u0111\u1ec9nh<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n

V\u00ed d\u1ee5:<\/p>\n

\u0110\u1ed3 th\u1ecb ng\u00e0y c\u1ee7a CTD<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n

\u0110\u1ed3 th\u1ecb ng\u00e0y c\u1ee7a VND<\/p>\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

D\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u khi h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh m\u1eabu h\u00ecnh vai \u0111\u1ea7u vai l\u00e0 vai tr\u00e1i n\u1eb1m ra ngo\u00e0i d\u1ea3i tr\u00ean Bollinger, \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0 vai ph\u1ea3i s\u1ebd n\u1eb1m trong d\u1ea3i tr\u00ean bollinger m\u1eb7c d\u00f9 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 c\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0 vai ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ec1u cao h\u01a1n vai tr\u00e1i. Sau khi qua vai ph\u1ea3i n\u00f3 s\u1ebd ph\u00e1 v\u1ee1 d\u1ea3i d\u01b0\u1edbi c\u1ee7a \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng Bollinger; \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u nguy hi\u1ec3m cho th\u1ea5y n\u00f3 \u0111\u00e3 ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn b\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0o xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u1ea3m.<\/p>\n

M\u1eabu h\u00ecnh 3 l\u1ea7n \u0111\u1ea9y l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn th\u1ec3 c\u1ee7a m\u1eabu h\u00ecnh vai \u0111\u1ea7u vai v\u00e0 n\u00f3 th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n r\u00f5 trong \u0111\u1ed3 th\u1ecb VND. M\u1eabu h\u00ecnh n\u00e0y th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n r\u00f5 m\u1ed9t xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng khi \u0111\u1ec9nh sau cao h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ec9nh tr\u01b0\u1edbc. \u0110\u1ec9nh 1 n\u1eb1m ngo\u00e0i d\u1ea3i Bollinger, \u0111\u1ec9nh th\u1ee9 2 s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea1t m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 cao h\u01a1n v\u00e0 ch\u1ea1m v\u00e0o d\u1ea3i tr\u00ean, \u0111\u1ec9nh th\u1ee9 3 s\u1ebd t\u1ea1o ra m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 cao m\u1edbi nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ea1m d\u1ea3i tr\u00ean<\/strong> (kh\u1ed1i l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m d\u1ea7n khi h\u00ecnh th\u00e0nh m\u00f4 h\u00ecnh) <\/p>\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n

M\u1eabu h\u00ecnh M hay W t\u1ea5t nhi\u00ean c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 x\u00e9t theo c\u00e1c khung th\u1eddi gian kh\u00e1c nhau t\u00f9y thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o vi\u1ec7c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 trading trong khung th\u1eddi gian n\u00e0o. V\u00ec v\u1eady, ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u00f9ng n\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n cp trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n v\u00e0i ng\u00e0y.<\/p>\n

H\u00ecnh b\u00ean l\u00e0 VCG ta th\u1ea5y n\u00f3 \u0111ang t\u1ea1o \u0111\u1ec9nh th\u1ee9 2 v\u1edbi \u0111\u00fang m\u00f4 t\u00edp l\u00e0 vai tr\u00e1i n\u1eb1m ngo\u00e0i bolllinger v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u n\u1eb1m trong bollinger. Ta ch\u1edd xem n\u00f3 c\u00f3 t\u0103ng ti\u1ebfp kh\u00f4ng hay l\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m v\u1ec1 \u00edt nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng MA50.<\/p>\n

M\u1ed9t cp trong xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng r\u1ed3i t\u1edbi l\u00fac n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3 n\u00f3 s\u1ebd t\u1edbi \u0111\u1ec9nh \u0111\u1ec3 sang b\u00ean kia s\u01b0\u1eddn d\u1ed1c. Khi c\u00e0ng t\u1edbi \u0111\u1ec9nh l\u1ef1c t\u0103ng s\u1ebd c\u00e0ng y\u1ebfu d\u1ea7n th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n s\u1ef1 th\u1eadn tr\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3 phe mua v\u00e0 phe b\u00e1n. Theo d\u00f5i m\u1ed9t cp b\u1ea1n \u0111ang n\u1eafm gi\u1eef \u1edf pha \u0111\u1ec9nh c\u0169ng quan tr\u1ecdng kh\u00f4ng k\u00e9m khi b\u1ea1n ki\u00ean nh\u1eabn \u0111\u1ee3i \u0111i\u1ec3m mua \u0111\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng m\u1ea5t \u0111i l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn \u0111\u00e3 c\u00f3 tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00f3.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n

\n

Ngu\u1ed3n:<\/strong> \u0110\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n (P16: M\u1eabu h\u00ecnh \u0111\u00e1y W v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ec9nh M) \u2014 chienluocsong.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Source: https:\/\/chienluocsong.com\/dau-tu-chung-khoan-p16-mau-hinh-day-w-va-dinh-m\/<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1182,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[26],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1181","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-chienluocsong"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.ngocha.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1181","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.ngocha.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.ngocha.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.ngocha.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.ngocha.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1181"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/blog.ngocha.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1181\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1478,"href":"https:\/\/blog.ngocha.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1181\/revisions\/1478"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.ngocha.biz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1182"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.ngocha.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1181"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.ngocha.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1181"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.ngocha.biz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1181"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}