![\"covid19\"](\"https:\/\/chienluocsong.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/covid19-1024x773.jpg\")
\u1ea2nh h\u01b0\u1edfng k\u00e9p n\u00e0y s\u1ebd g\u00e2y h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i so v\u1edbi th\u1eddi \u0111i\u1ec3m 2008. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 s\u1ee9c kh\u1ecfe c\u1ee7a ch\u00fang ta t\u1ed1t h\u01a1n nh\u01b0ng c\u00fa \u0111\u1ea5m n\u00e0y n\u1eb7ng h\u01a1n nhi\u1ec1u. Covid-19 r\u1ed3i c\u00f9ng s\u1ebd qua nh\u01b0ng h\u1ed3i ph\u1ee5c c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf s\u1ebd r\u1ea5t ch\u1eadm; thay v\u00ec tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u00e2y ta ch\u1ec9 c\u1ea7n t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0o T\u1ed5ng c\u1ea7u v\u00ed d\u1ee5 nh\u01b0 t\u0103ng chi ti\u00eau ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7, gi\u1ea3m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t huy \u0111\u1ed9ng; th\u00ec nay ph\u1ea3i t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ea3 v\u00e0o t\u1ed5ng cung nh\u01b0 tung ra c\u00e1c g\u00f3i h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, mi\u1ec5n gi\u1ea3m thu\u1ebf,…<\/p>\n
L\u1ea1m ph\u00e1t (m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 chung) gi\u1ea3m nhi\u1ec1u th\u00e1ng li\u00ean ti\u1ebfp s\u1ebd l\u00e0 d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u cho th\u1ea5y \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1ed5ng c\u1ea7u \u0111\u00e3 d\u1ecbch tr\u00e1i. Ngay c\u1ea3 khi n\u00f3 t\u0103ng c\u0169ng kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111i\u1ec1u g\u00ec khi m\u00e0 s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u0169ng \u0111ang b\u1ecb gi\u1ea3m t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi nhu c\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n
Gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng m\u1ee9c 33 USD, TTCK \u0111ang c\u00f3 h\u00e0nh vi r\u1ea5t gi\u1ed1ng v\u1edbi n\u0103m 2008, V\u00e0ng v\u00e0 USD \u0111ang t\u0103ng gi\u00e1, T\u1ed3n kho b\u1ea5t \u0111\u1ed9ng s\u1ea3n \u0111ang c\u00f3 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng, t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 th\u1ea5t nghi\u1ec7p t\u0103ng. To\u00e0n d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u x\u1ea5u.<\/p>\n
D\u1ecbch Covid-19 c\u00e0ng k\u00e9o d\u00e0i th\u00ec h\u1eadu qu\u1ea3 c\u00e0ng l\u1edbn v\u00e0 c\u00e0ng kh\u00f3 \u0111\u1ec3 h\u1ed3i ph\u1ee5c. Th\u1eadt kh\u00f3 m\u00e0 t\u01b0\u1edfng t\u01b0\u1ee3ng \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c ph\u1ea3i m\u1ea5t bao l\u00e2u n\u1eefa th\u00ec ph\u1ed1 \u0111i b\u1ed9 quanh H\u1ed3 G\u01b0\u01a1m m\u1edbi tr\u1edf n\u00ean nh\u1ed9n nh\u1ecbp nh\u01b0 ban \u0111\u1ea7u. N\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf c\u0169ng v\u1eady, bao gi\u1edd b\u1ea1n th\u1ea5y H\u1ed3 g\u01b0\u01a1m \u0111\u00f4ng vui tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i th\u00ec l\u00fac \u0111\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 tin t\u01b0\u1edfng r\u1eb1ng kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u00e3 h\u1ed3i ph\u1ee5c.<\/p>\n
M\u00ecnh hay \u0103n b\u00e1nh m\u00ec bu\u1ed5i tr\u01b0a sau khi t\u1eadp, th\u1ea5y b\u00e0 b\u00e1n h\u00e0ng t\u00e2m s\u1ef1, b\u00e0 l\u00ean TP b\u00e1n b\u00e1nh m\u1ef3, thu\u00ea m\u1ed9t c\u00e1i c\u1eeda h\u00e0ng ch\u01b0a \u0111\u1ea7y 2m2 tr\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng B\u00e0 Tri\u1ec7u v\u00e0 thu\u00ea m\u1ed9t ch\u1ed7 tr\u1ecd \u0111\u1ec3 \u1edf. H\u00e0ng h\u1ecd \u1ebf \u1ea9m, ti\u1ec1n thu\u00ea nh\u00e0 v\u00e0 c\u1eeda h\u00e0ng th\u00ec tr\u1ea3 tr\u01b0\u1edbc v\u00e0i th\u00e1ng, kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 thu nh\u1eadp v\u00e0o, ch\u1eb3ng bi\u1ebft c\u00f3 tr\u1ee5 n\u1ed5i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c \u0111\u00f4i th\u00e1ng n\u1eefa kh\u00f4ng. Gi\u1edd ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7, doanh nghi\u1ec7p v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n kh\u00f4ng n\u00ean b\u00e0n v\u1ec1 vi\u1ec7c s\u1ebd ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o m\u00e0 l\u00e0m sao \u0111\u1ec3 s\u1ed1ng s\u00f3t.<\/p>\n
M\u00ecnh ngh\u0129 r\u1eb1ng c\u00e1ch \u1ee9ng x\u1eed chung s\u1ebd l\u00e0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0y:<\/strong><\/p>\n N\u1ebfu gi\u00e1 l\u00e0m cho l\u01b0\u1ee3ng c\u1ea7u di chuy\u1ec3n tr\u00ean \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng t\u1ed5ng c\u1ea7u th\u00ec nh\u1eefng y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 kh\u00e1c s\u1ebd l\u00e0m d\u1ecbch chuy\u1ec3n t\u1ed5ng c\u1ea7u AD khi n\u00f3 t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u00ean\u00a0C, I, G, NX: \u2013 Chi ti\u00eau ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n C thay \u0111\u1ed5i do: + C\u1ee7a c\u1ea3i thay \u0111\u1ed5i; th\u1ecb hi\u1ebfu thay \u0111\u1ed5i<\/p>\n + K\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 thu nh\u1eadp v\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m: k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng l\u00e0 thu nh\u1eadp s\u1ebd t\u0103ng trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai th\u00ec chi ti\u00eau s\u1ebd t\u0103ng. \u0110\u1ea1i lo\u1ea1i l\u00e0 n\u1ebfu b\u1ea1n k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng n\u0103m t\u1edbi l\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u00ecnh s\u1ebd t\u0103ng g\u1ea5p \u0111\u00f4i; b\u1ea1n kh\u00f4ng \u0111\u1ee3i t\u1edbi l\u00fac \u0111\u00f3 m\u1edbi t\u0103ng chi ti\u00eau m\u00e0 t\u0103ng chi ti\u00eau ngay ng\u00e0y h\u00f4m nay.<\/p>\n \u2013 \u0110\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u1ee7a doanh nghi\u1ec7p I thay \u0111\u1ed5i do:<\/p>\n + Ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7: cung ti\u1ec1n MS t\u0103ng l\u00e0m l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t gi\u1ea3m khi\u1ebfn cho I t\u0103ng v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n + K\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u1ec1 s\u1ef1 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n kinh t\u1ebf: doanh nghi\u1ec7p k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng s\u1eafp t\u1edbi kinh t\u1ebf s\u1ebd h\u1ed3i ph\u1ee5c v\u00e0 t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng th\u00ec h\u1ecd s\u1ebd t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u1ec3 \u0111\u00f3n \u0111\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n + Ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch t\u00e0i kh\u00f3a: thay \u0111\u1ed5i v\u1ec1 thu\u1ebf, tr\u1ee3 c\u1ea5p. gi\u1ea3m thu\u1ebf th\u00ec doanh nghi\u1ec7p th\u1ea5y l\u00e3i h\u01a1n v\u00ec v\u1eady t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0.<\/p>\n \u2013 Chi ti\u00eau c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 G: G t\u0103ng th\u00ec AD t\u0103ng v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i<\/p>\n \u2013 Xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u r\u00f2ng NX = X \u2013 IM.<\/p>\n + Xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u X thay \u0111\u1ed5i do thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i thay \u0111\u1ed5i, ch\u00ednh s\u00e1ch li\u00ean quan t\u1edbi thu\u1ebf quan, h\u1ea1n ng\u1ea1ch c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc;\u00a0Th\u1ecb hi\u1ebfu c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng h\u00e0n trong n\u01b0\u1edbc;\u00a0T\u1ef7 gi\u00e1 h\u1ed1i \u0111o\u00e1i<\/p>\n + Nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u IM thay \u0111\u1ed5i do thu nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea3 d\u1ee5ng c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng,\u00a0thu\u1ebf, th\u1ecb hi<\/a>\u1ebfu \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi h\u00e0ng n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n L\u00e0 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a v\u00e0 d\u1ecbch v\u1ee5 \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c cung \u1ee9ng tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng; n\u00f3 th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n quan h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 chung v\u00e0 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c cung \u1ee9ng<\/p>\n C\u00f4ng th\u1ee9c c\u1ee7a t\u1ed5ng cung l\u00e0\u00a0Y= Y* +\u00a0\u03b1 (P \u2013 Pe)<\/strong><\/p>\n Pe l\u00e0 m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng v\u00e0 P l\u00e0 m\u1ee9c gi\u00e1 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf.<\/p>\n Y l\u00e0 s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf v\u00e0 Y* l\u00e0 s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng ti\u1ec1m n\u0103ng<\/p>\n \u03b1 l\u00e0 h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1 \u0111o l\u01b0\u1eddng gi\u1eefa s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0 gi\u00e1 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf:<\/p>\n V\u00ed d\u1ee5 : Khi nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng r\u1eb1ng s\u1ebd b\u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a l\u00e0 Pe; h\u1ecd s\u1ebd t\u0103ng s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng l\u00ean t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u1ee9ng v\u1edbi m\u1ee9c n\u00e0y. T\u0103ng nh\u01b0 th\u1ebf n\u00e0o ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o h\u1ec7 s\u1ed1\u00a0\u03b1. Tuy nhi\u00ean th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf gi\u00e1 b\u00e1n kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 Pe m\u00e0 l\u00e0 P. Nguy\u00ean nh\u00e2n l\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng th\u00f4ng tin l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o, ng\u01b0\u1eddi s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ch\u1ec9 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n Pe ch\u1ee9 kh\u00f4ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 con s\u1ed1 th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf P.<\/p>\n V\u1ec1 ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n th\u00ec th\u00f4ng tin l\u00e0 kh\u00f4ng ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o nh\u01b0ng v\u1ec1 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n th\u00ec n\u00f3 l\u00e0 ho\u00e0n h\u1ea3o n\u00ean P = Pe. Khi \u0111\u00f3 ta c\u00f3 Y=Y* ch\u00ednh l\u00e0 t\u1ed5ng cung trong d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n. N\u00f3 l\u00e0 \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng th\u1eb3ng \u0111\u1ee9ng.<\/p>\n\n
<\/div>\n
\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/farm8.staticflickr.com\/7440\/11618511536_d34977225e_c.jpg\")
<\/p>\n
\n+ Thu nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea3 d\u1ee5ng thay \u0111\u1ed5i v\u00ec \u00a0Yd= C + Sp; n\u00ean khi thu nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea3 d\u1ee5ng Yd thay \u0111\u1ed5i th\u00ec c\u1ea3 C v\u00e0 ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m Sp \u0111\u1ec1u thay \u0111\u1ed5i<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/farm4.staticflickr.com\/3751\/11618561194_544f180665_z.jpg\")
<\/p>\n