{"id":1281,"date":"2019-01-09T18:20:08","date_gmt":"2019-01-09T18:20:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.ngocha.biz\/?p=1281"},"modified":"2026-05-27T18:21:34","modified_gmt":"2026-05-27T18:21:34","slug":"lai-suat-chi-so-quan-trong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.ngocha.biz\/?p=1281","title":{"rendered":"L\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 quan tr\u1ecdng (P4:TTCK)"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n tr\u00ean 99,5% l\u00e0 nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 c\u00e1 nh\u00e2n, m\u1ed7i ng\u01b0\u1eddi m\u1ed7i quan \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 kh\u00e1c nhau. Cho d\u00f9 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u t\u1eeb \u0111\u00e2u v\u00e0 v\u1edbi quan \u0111i\u1ec3m \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u00e0o th\u00ec \u0111\u1ec1u ph\u1ea3i quan t\u00e2m t\u1edbi t\u00ecm hi\u1ec3u th\u00f4ng tin v\u1ec1 kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 b\u00ean c\u1ea1nh t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh kinh doanh c\u1ee7a doanh nghi\u1ec7p m\u00e0 h\u1ecd mua c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu.<\/p>\n

Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n v\u00e0 s\u1ee9c kh\u1ecfe c\u1ee7a n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf<\/span><\/h1>\n

C\u00f3 t\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng hay th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0o l\u1ea1i t\u1ef1 ch\u00ea v\u1ec1 tri\u1ec3n v\u1ecdng kinh t\u1ebf t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai kh\u00f4ng? Kh\u00f4ng, cho d\u00f9 c\u00f3 l\u00e0 Trump hay Th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng n\u01b0\u1edbc ta, t\u1ea5t c\u1ea3 \u0111\u1ec1u t\u00f4 v\u1ebd m\u1ed9t vi\u1ec5n c\u1ea3nh t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai kinh t\u1ebf \u0111\u1ea5t n\u01b0\u1edbc m\u00ecnh m\u1ed9t c\u00e1ch s\u00e1ng l\u1ea1n. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y c\u0169ng gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 vi\u1ec7c b\u1ea1n nghe m\u1ed9t ng\u01b0\u1eddi b\u00e1n h\u00e0ng n\u00f3i v\u1ec1 s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd b\u00e1n, ch\u1eb3ng c\u00f3 ng\u01b0\u1eddi b\u00e1n n\u00e0o l\u1ea1i ch\u00ea m\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 khen s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m m\u00ecnh b\u00e1n.<\/p>\n

S\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m t\u1ed1t hay x\u1ea5u ph\u1ea3i th\u00f4ng qua ph\u00e2n t\u00edch c\u00e1c th\u00f4ng s\u1ed1 c\u1ee7a s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m c\u0169ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 nh\u01b0 n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf t\u1ed1t hay x\u1ea5u l\u00e0 th\u00f4ng qua c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 v\u0129 m\u00f4 c\u1ee7a n\u00f3.<\/p>\n

Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n l\u00e0 h\u00e0n th\u1eed bi\u1ec3u c\u1ee7a kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4, n\u00f3 c\u00f3 m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 nh\u00e2n qu\u1ea3 c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 m\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o. \u0110\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n gi\u1ecfi c\u0169ng ph\u1ea3i l\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ph\u00e2n t\u00edch kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 gi\u1ecfi.<\/p>\n

Tu\u1ea7n n\u00e0y M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Trung Qu\u1ed1c s\u1ebd h\u1ed9i \u0111\u00e0m v\u1edbi nhau \u0111\u1ec3 ti\u1ebfn t\u1edbi gi\u1ea3i quy\u1ebft c\u00e1c xung \u0111\u1ed9t. C\u1ea3 T\u1ed5ng th\u1ed1ng M\u1ef9 v\u00e0 Ch\u1ee7 t\u1ecbch Trung Qu\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ec1u mu\u1ed1n hai b\u00ean \u0111i \u0111\u1ebfn m\u1ed9t gi\u1ea3i ph\u00e1p thay v\u00ec c\u1ee9 \u0111\u1ea5u \u0111\u00e1 nhau. Chi\u1ebfn tranh th\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ea1i l\u00e0m cho th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3 hai qu\u1ed1c gia \u0111\u1ec1u gi\u1ea3m, m\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u \u0111\u00f3 s\u1ebd \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1edbi m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 \u1ee7ng h\u1ed9 l\u00e3nh \u0111\u1ea1o c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n m\u1ed7i n\u01b0\u1edbc. \u0110\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 M\u1ef9, n\u01a1i m\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n t\u0103ng \u0111i\u1ec3m c\u0169ng quan tr\u1ecdng ch\u1eb3ng k\u00e9m g\u00ec s\u1ed1 vi\u1ec7c l\u00e0m t\u1ea1o m\u1edbi ph\u1ea3i t\u0103ng. V\u00e0 v\u00ec v\u1eady ch\u00fang ta c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn l\u00e0 hai n\u01b0\u1edbc s\u1ebd \u0111\u1ea1t t\u1edbi m\u1ed9t th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn chung tr\u01b0\u1edbc th\u1eddi h\u1ea1n th\u00e1ng 3 t\u1edbi \u0111\u00e2y. \u0110i\u1ec1u n\u00e0y \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n b\u1eb1ng ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 c\u00f4ng nghi\u1ec7p Dow Jones (DJ) c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 t\u0103ng \u0111i\u1ec3m m\u1ea5y ng\u00e0y qua. T\u1eeb m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t ng\u00e0y 3\/1 l\u00e0 22.685 \u0111i\u1ec3m khi ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 M\u1ef9 \u0111\u00f3ng c\u1eeda t\u1edbi ng\u00e0y 7\/1 \u0111\u00e3 quanh 23.600 \u0111i\u1ec3m (t\u0103ng 5%).<\/p>\n

Th\u00f4ng qua ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 DJ c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 t\u0103ng hay gi\u1ea3m m\u00e0 ta bi\u1ebft \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 l\u1ea1c quan hay bi quan v\u1edbi n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf hay m\u1ed9t s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n c\u1ee5 th\u1ec3 n\u00e0o \u0111\u00f3, gi\u1ed1ng nh\u01b0 cu\u1ed9c g\u1eb7p M\u1ef9-Trung \u0111ang di\u1ec5n ra.<\/p>\n

Ngo\u00e0i ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 Dow Jones \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh t\u1eeb 30 c\u00f4ng ty l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t th\u00ec c\u00f2n ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 S&P 500 l\u00e0 500 c\u00f4ng ty c\u00f3 v\u1ed1n h\u00f3a th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng l\u1edbn nh\u1ea5t tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n NewYork. Hai ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 n\u00e0y c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 bi\u1ebfn thi\u00ean t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i gi\u1ed1ng nhau n\u00ean th\u01b0\u1eddng ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta ch\u1ec9 quan t\u00e2m 1 trong hai ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1; ho\u1eb7c DJ ho\u1eb7c S&P500.<\/p>\n

M\u1ed7i n\u01b0\u1edbc s\u1ebd c\u00f3 c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 chung ti\u00eau bi\u1ec3u. \u1ede Vi\u1ec7t Nam \u0111\u00f3 l\u00e0 VnIndex l\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 chung c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty ni\u00eam y\u1ebft tr\u00ean s\u00e0n H\u1ed3 Ch\u00ed Minh (HOSE). Ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 HNX l\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 chung c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty ni\u00eam y\u1ebft tr\u00ean s\u00e0n H\u00e0 N\u1ed9i (HNX). Do v\u1ed1n h\u00f3a c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty tr\u00ean s\u00e0n HOSE chi\u1ebfm h\u01a1n 75% t\u1ed5ng v\u1ed1n h\u00f3a to\u00e0n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng (HOSE, HNX v\u00e0 UPCOM) n\u00ean VnIndex \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c coi l\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 ch\u00ednh ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh to\u00e0n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng.<\/p>\n

T\u1ea1i sao th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n l\u1ea1i l\u00e0 th\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111o ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3 hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i l\u1eabn t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai?<\/strong><\/span><\/h1>\n

Tr\u00ean TTCK, gi\u00e1 m\u1ed7i c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh hi\u1ec7n tr\u1ea1ng v\u00e0 k\u1ef3 v\u1ecdng c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi DN \u0111\u00f3. VnIndex \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean c\u00e1c c\u1ed5 phi\u1ebfu n\u00e0y v\u00ec v\u1eady n\u00f3 ph\u1ea3n \u00e1nh m\u1ed9t hi\u1ec7n tr\u1ea1ng v\u00e0 t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai chung c\u1ee7a kinh t\u1ebf VN. T\u1ea5t nhi\u00ean ph\u1ea3i hi\u1ec3u r\u1eb1ng gi\u00e1 l\u00e0 s\u1ef1 th\u1ecfa thu\u1eadn gi\u1eefa ng\u01b0\u1eddi mua v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi b\u00e1n m\u00e0 quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh c\u1ee7a ng\u01b0\u1eddi mua v\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi b\u00e1n kh\u00f4ng ch\u1ec9 d\u1ef1a tr\u00ean l\u00fd tr\u00ed m\u00e0 c\u00f2n tr\u00ean c\u1ea3 c\u1ea3m x\u00fac n\u1eefa.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7 lu\u00f4n mu\u1ed1n TTCK t\u0103ng \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00ec n\u00f3 th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n hi\u1ec7n tr\u1ea1ng v\u00e0 ni\u1ec1m tin c\u1ee7a nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 v\u00e0o n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf.<\/p>\n

C\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 c\u1ea7n quan t\u00e2m<\/strong><\/span><\/h1>\n

L\u00e3i\u00a0su\u1ea5t<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

Khi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t t\u0103ng, ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n s\u1ebd g\u1eedi ti\u1ec1n ti\u1ebft ki\u1ec7m v\u00ec v\u1eady chi ti\u00eau v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m; v\u00e0 ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ed5 v\u00e0o TTCK c\u0169ng gi\u1ea3m. Ng\u01b0\u1ee3c l\u1ea1i, khi l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t gi\u1ea3m, ng\u01b0\u1eddi d\u00e2n s\u1ebd chi ti\u00eau v\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n; ti\u1ec1n \u0111\u1ed5 v\u00e0o TTCK nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n.<\/p>\n

L\u00e3i su\u1ea5t gi\u1ea3m c\u0169ng l\u00e0m cho chi ph\u00ed v\u1ed1n vay c\u1ee7a DN gi\u1ea3m \u0111i nh\u1edd v\u1eady h\u1ecd c\u00f3 l\u00e3i h\u01a1n. N\u00f3i chung l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t gi\u1ea3m th\u00ec ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 chung th\u01b0\u1eddng t\u0103ng \u0111i\u1ec3m. T\u1ea5t nhi\u00ean Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc c\u0169ng r\u1ea5t \u00edt khi thay \u0111\u1ed5i l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t, th\u01b0\u1eddng h\u1ecd s\u1ebd n\u00f3i v\u1ec1 \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng s\u1eafp t\u1edbi. V\u00ed d\u1ee5 NHNN b\u1ea3o s\u1ebd \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t trong n\u0103m th\u00ec hi\u1ec3u l\u00e0 trong n\u0103m s\u1ebd kh\u00f4ng c\u00f3 bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u1ec1 l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t; nh\u01b0ng n\u1ebfu NHNN ph\u00e1t bi\u1ec3u theo h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng hay gi\u1ea3m th\u00ec s\u1ebd ngay l\u1eadp t\u1ee9c \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1edbi TTCK \u1edf hi\u1ec7n t\u1ea1i.<\/p>\n

NHNN th\u01b0\u1eddng r\u1ea5t c\u1ea9n th\u1eadn trong c\u00e1c ph\u00e1t bi\u1ec3u ki\u1ec3u nh\u01b0 v\u1eady v\u00ec c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 n\u00f3 s\u1ebd d\u1ed9i v\u00e0o m\u1ed9t g\u00e1o n\u01b0\u1edbc l\u1ea1nh v\u00e0o th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng; nh\u01b0 v\u1eady s\u1ebd m\u1ebfch l\u00f2ng th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng.<\/p>\n

M\u1ed1i quan h\u1ec7 gi\u1eefa l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng r\u00f5 nh\u1ea5t l\u00e0 trong n\u0103m 2018 v\u1eeba qua khi FED t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t 4 l\u1ea7n. C\u1ee9 m\u1ed7i tr\u01b0\u1edbc k\u1ef3 h\u1ecdp c\u1ee7a FED l\u00e0 c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 l\u1ea1i \u0111o\u00e1n. N\u1ebfu h\u1ecd \u0111o\u00e1n FED t\u0103ng LS th\u00ec Dj s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m ngay tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi FED h\u1ecdp. Khi h\u1ecd \u0111o\u00e1n FED kh\u00f4ng t\u0103ng LS th\u00ec DJ s\u1ebd ch\u1eadp ch\u1eddn \u0111\u1ee3i ch\u1edd tr\u01b0\u1edbc khi FED h\u1ecdp; n\u1ebfu FED h\u1ecdp v\u00e0 quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh ko t\u0103ng th\u00ec DJ t\u0103ng \u0111i\u1ec3m; n\u1ebfu quy\u1ebft \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u0103ng LS th\u00ec DJ s\u1ebd s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh h\u01a1n n\u1eefa.<\/p>\n

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DJ v\u00e0 c\u00e1c l\u1ea7n t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a FED n\u0103m 2018<\/p><\/div>\n

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S&P 500 v\u00e0 c\u00e1c l\u1ea7n t\u0103ng l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a FED n\u0103m 2018<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Th\u1ee7 t\u01b0\u1edbng n\u01b0\u1edbc ta \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng nhi\u00ean mu\u1ed1n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ch\u1ee9ng kho\u00e1n t\u0103ng \u0111i\u1ec3m v\u00ec n\u00f3 s\u1ebd gi\u00fap c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 l\u1ea1c quan \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 ti\u1ec1n, ng\u01b0\u1eddi ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng l\u1ea1c quan m\u00e0 chi ti\u00eau nhi\u1ec1u ti\u1ec1n h\u01a1n, c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 n\u01b0\u1edbc ngo\u00e0i \u0111\u1ed5 ti\u1ec1n v\u00e0o nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n, tho\u00e1i v\u1ed1n DN nh\u00e0 n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u00e1 h\u01a1n,…N\u00f3i chung TTCK t\u0103ng \u0111i\u1ec3m l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 quan tr\u1ecdng th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n n\u0103ng l\u1ef1c \u0111i\u1ec1u h\u00e0nh c\u1ee7a ch\u00ednh ph\u1ee7. Ng\u00e2n h\u00e0ng r\u1ea5t \u00edt khi t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng v\u00e0o l\u00e3i su\u1ea5t v\u00ec h\u1ecd c\u00f3 c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng c\u1ee5 kh\u00e1c hay h\u01a1n \u0111\u1ec3 n\u1edbi l\u1ecfng hay th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t nh\u01b0 quy \u0111\u1ecbnh t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng t\u00edn d\u1ee5ng, \u0111\u1ecbnh h\u01b0\u1edbng \u01b0u ti\u00ean cho vay c\u00e1c ng\u00e0nh ngh\u1ec1…Ch\u00fang ta s\u1ebd t\u00ecm hi\u1ec3u d\u1ea7n c\u00e1c ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 kinh t\u1ebf v\u0129 m\u00f4 kh\u00e1c \u1edf entry sau. \u0110\u1ecdc th\u00eam: Bi\u1ebfn \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng qua 15 l\u1ea7n th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t ti\u1ec1n t\u1ec7 c\u1ee7a Fed<\/a><\/p>\n

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Ngu\u1ed3n:<\/strong> L\u00e3i su\u1ea5t ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 quan tr\u1ecdng (P4:TTCK) \u2014 chienluocsong.com<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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