{"id":1403,"date":"2017-09-11T17:40:15","date_gmt":"2017-09-11T17:40:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.ngocha.biz\/?p=1403"},"modified":"2017-09-11T17:40:15","modified_gmt":"2017-09-11T17:40:15","slug":"cuoc-chien-dau-mo-bao-gio-toi-hoi-ket","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.ngocha.biz\/?p=1403","title":{"rendered":"Cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf bao gi\u1edd t\u1edbi h\u1ed3i k\u1ebft ?"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n 5\/5 – (3 votes) <\/div>\n<\/p><\/div>\n

Nh\u01b0 c\u00e1c b\u1ea1n c\u0169ng \u0111\u00e3 bi\u1ebft, d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf \u0111\u00f3ng vai tr\u00f2 v\u00f4 c\u00f9ng quan tr\u1ecdng \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1edbi kinh t\u1ebf, ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi. Khi gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u cao nh\u01b0 nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 2014 th\u00ec nh\u1eefng n\u01b0\u1edbc, c\u00f4ng ty, lao \u0111\u1ed9ng trong ng\u00e0nh d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i l\u1edbn. Khi gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u gi\u1ea3m nh\u01b0 b\u00e2y gi\u1edd th\u00ec nh\u1eefng n\u01b0\u1edbc ti\u00eau th\u1ee5 nhi\u1ec1u d\u1ea7u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u01b0\u1edfng l\u1ee3i.<\/p>\n

Gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u \u1ea3nh t\u0103ng hay gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u1ec1u c\u00f3 m\u1eb7t l\u1ee3i v\u00e0 m\u1eb7t b\u1ea5t l\u1ee3i.<\/p>\n

Gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u cao t\u1ed1t hay gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u th\u1ea5p t\u1ed1t?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u cao ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c t\u1edbi GDP th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi. M\u1eb7c d\u00f9 GDP c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u d\u1ea7u t\u0103ng nh\u01b0ng l\u1ea1i l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m GDP c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u d\u1ea7u.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u th\u1ea5p s\u1ebd \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1ed1t t\u1edbi GDP th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi nh\u01b0ng n\u00f3 l\u00e0m n\u1ea3y sinh m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 v\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 sau:<\/p>\n

    \n
  • Khi gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u qu\u00e1 th\u1ea5p th\u00ec ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta kh\u00f4ng c\u00f2n b\u1ecf ti\u1ec1n v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ea7u t\u01b0 nghi\u00ean c\u1ee9u ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u00e1c nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u thay th\u1ebf n\u1eefa. S\u1edf d\u0129 xe \u0111i\u1ec7n gi\u1edd c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n l\u00e0 nh\u1edd nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 2014 gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u l\u00ean t\u1edbi h\u01a1n 100 usd\/th\u00f9ng ( hi\u1ec7n ch\u1ec9 \u1edf m\u1ee9c 48 usd\/th\u00f9ng v\u1edbi d\u1ea7u ng\u1ecdt nh\u1eb9)<\/li>\n
  • Kinh t\u1ebf c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc ph\u1ee5 thu\u1ed9c v\u00e0o d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf b\u1ecb kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng k\u00e9o theo kinh t\u1ebf, ch\u00ednh tr\u1ecb c\u1ee7a c\u1ea3 khu v\u1ef1c c\u0169ng b\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng. Venezuela l\u00e0 m\u1ed9t v\u00ed d\u1ee5.<\/li>\n
  • Th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ea7u tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi h\u1eefu h\u1ea1n. Gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u th\u1ea5p khi\u1ebfn cho vi\u1ec7c s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng c\u0169ng l\u00e3ng ph\u00ed h\u01a1n. R\u1ed3i t\u1edbi l\u00fac khi d\u1ea7u c\u1ea1n ki\u1ec7t th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n b\u1eb1ng chi ph\u00ed khai th\u00e1c m\u1ed7i th\u00f9ng d\u1ea7u ng\u00e0y m\u1ed9t t\u0103ng th\u00ec gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u s\u1ebd t\u0103ng r\u1ea5t cao \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng ti\u00eau c\u1ef1c t\u1edbi kinh t\u1ebf th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi.<\/li>\n
  • L\u00e0m t\u0103ng t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 hi\u1ec7u \u1ee9ng nh\u00e0 k\u00ednh do ng\u01b0\u1eddi ta ti\u00eau d\u00f9ng nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u h\u00f3a th\u1ea1ch nhi\u1ec1u h\u01a1n.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

    Nh\u1eefng n\u01b0\u1edbc, c\u00f4ng ty, lao \u0111\u1ed9ng trong ng\u00e0nh d\u1ea7u mu\u1ed1n d\u1ea7u t\u0103ng gi\u00e1. Nh\u1eefng n\u01b0\u1edbc, c\u00f4ng ty, lao \u0111\u1ed9ng trong ng\u00e0nh c\u00f3 \u0111\u1ea7u v\u00e0o l\u00e0 d\u1ea7u l\u1ea1i mu\u1ed1n gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1. Hi\u1ec7n cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf n\u1eb1m ch\u1ee7 y\u1ebfu \u1edf ph\u00eda b\u00ean Cung d\u1ea7u do kh\u00f4ng th\u1ed1ng nh\u1ea5t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c chung m\u1ed9t ph\u01b0\u01a1ng \u00e1n.<\/p>\n

    S\u1ef1 ph\u1ee9c t\u1ea1p trong Cung- C\u1ea7u d\u1ea7u:<\/strong><\/p>\n

    C\u00f3 th\u1ec3 ch\u1eafc ch\u1eafn m\u1ed9t \u0111i\u1ec1u l\u00e0 gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u gi\u1ea3m \u00a0trong th\u1eddi gian qua xu\u1ea5t ph\u00e1t t\u1eeb ph\u00eda b\u00ean cung. Nhu c\u1ea7u d\u1ea7u trong c\u00e1c n\u0103m qua c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 kh\u00f4ng t\u0103ng \u0111\u1ed9t bi\u1ebfn nh\u01b0ng kh\u00f4ng h\u1ec1 gi\u1ea3m.<\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/p>\n

    Ngu\u1ed3n :\u00a0https:\/\/www.iea.org\/oilmarketreport\/omrpublic\/<\/em><\/p>\n

    Y\u1ebfu t\u1ed1 \u0111ang g\u00e2y kh\u00f3 \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi b\u00ean cung d\u1ea7u l\u00e0 vi\u1ec7c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t d\u1ea7u \u0111\u00e1 phi\u1ebfn t\u1ea1i M\u1ef9. Chi ph\u00ed cho s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t m\u1ed7i th\u00f9ng d\u1ea7u \u0111\u00e1 phi\u1ebfn trong kho\u1ea3ng t\u1eeb 36 t\u1edbi 48 usd\/th\u00f9ng t\u00f9y v\u00e0o v\u00f9ng mi\u1ec1n. T\u1ea1i bang Texas m\u1ed9t th\u00f9ng d\u1ea7u ng\u1ecdt nh\u1eb9 (Light Crude) c\u00f3 chi ph\u00ed sx 40usd\/th\u00f9ng.<\/p>\n

    Chi ph\u00ed s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t m\u1ed7i th\u00f9ng d\u1ea7u \u1edf c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc kh\u00f4ng gi\u1ed1ng nhau v\u00ec v\u1eady m\u1ee9c \u0111\u1ed9 \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a h\u1ecd kh\u00e1c nhau:<\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/p>\n

    Ngu\u1ed3n :\u00a0http:\/\/money.cnn.com\/interactive\/economy\/the-cost-to-produce-a-barrel-of-oil\/index.html?iid=EL<\/em><\/p>\n

    Chi ph\u00ed s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t trung b\u00ecnh m\u1ed9t th\u00f9ng d\u1ea7u \u1edf Vi\u1ec7t Nam l\u00e0 28 usd\/th\u00f9ng tuy nhi\u00ean c\u00f3 nhi\u1ec1u m\u1ecf chi ph\u00ed l\u1ea1i l\u00ean t\u1edbi h\u01a1n 50 usd\/th\u00f9ng. Nhi\u1ec1u m\u1ecf \u0111\u00e3 ph\u1ea3i ng\u1eebng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t ho\u1eb7c ch\u1ea5p nh\u1eadn b\u00e1n l\u1ed7 \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f3 ngo\u1ea1i t\u1ec7.<\/p>\n

    \"\"Ch\u00fang ta c\u0169ng nh\u1edb l\u1ea1i l\u00e0 cu\u1ed9c chi\u1ebfn d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf ng\u00e0y nay th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf l\u00e0 b\u1eaft ngu\u1ed3n t\u1eeb ch\u00ednh OPEC. OPEC t\u0103ng s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng v\u00e0o nh\u1eefng n\u0103m 2014, 2015 nh\u1eb1m gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u v\u1edbi m\u1ee5c \u0111\u00edch gi\u1ebft ch\u1ebft c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 cung c\u1ea5p kh\u00e1c (nh\u1eefng NCC c\u00f3 chi ph\u00ed khai th\u00e1c l\u1edbn).<\/p>\n

    Nh\u01b0ng OPEC kh\u00f4ng ng\u1edd r\u1eb1ng gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u l\u1ea1i t\u1ee5t t\u1edbi m\u1ee9c xu\u1ed1ng t\u1edbi 30 usd\/ th\u00f9ng v\u00e0o n\u0103m 2016 v\u00e0 ch\u1ec9 m\u1edbi h\u1ed3i ph\u1ee5c tr\u1edf l\u1ea1i trong n\u0103m nay.<\/p>\n

    Ch\u1ec9 c\u1ea7n gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u > 40 usd th\u00f9ng th\u00ec c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t d\u1ea7u \u0111\u00e1 phi\u1ebfn c\u1ee7a M\u1ef9 c\u00f2n c\u00f3 l\u00e3i v\u00e0 h\u1ecd c\u00f2n ti\u1ebfp t\u1ee5c khai th\u00e1c d\u1ea7u. V\u00ec v\u1eady b\u1ea5t ch\u1ea5p vi\u1ec7c c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc OPEC nh\u00f3m h\u1ecdp c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng th\u00ec gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u trong m\u1ed9t th\u00e1ng qua v\u1eabn dao \u0111\u1ed9ng quanh m\u1ee9c t\u1eeb 46 t\u1edbi 48 USD\/th\u00f9ng.<\/p>\n

    L\u00e0m th\u1ebf n\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec3 gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u t\u0103ng?<\/strong><\/p>\n

    Nh\u01b0 ph\u00e2n t\u00edch \u1edf tr\u00ean, gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u th\u1ea5p mang l\u1ea1i c\u00e1i l\u1ee3i tr\u01b0\u1edbc m\u1eaft l\u00e0 gi\u00fap GDP th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi nh\u01b0ng mang c\u00e1i h\u1ea1i l\u00e2u d\u00e0i l\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m t\u1ed1c \u0111\u1ed9 ph\u00e1t tri\u1ec3n c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c ngu\u1ed3n n\u0103ng l\u01b0\u1ee3ng thay th\u1ebf, t\u0103ng \u00f4 nhi\u1ec5m m\u00f4i tr\u01b0\u1eddng khi s\u1eed d\u1ee5ng nhi\u00ean li\u1ec7u h\u00f3a th\u1ea1ch, d\u1ef1 tr\u1eef d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf nhanh c\u1ea1n ki\u1ec7t h\u01a1n…<\/p>\n

    V\u1eady v\u1ec1 d\u00e0i h\u1ea1n gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u c\u1ea7n ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c k\u00e9o l\u00ean, c\u00f2n k\u00e9o l\u00ean cao bao nhi\u00eau l\u00e0 l\u00fd t\u01b0\u1edfng c\u0169ng kh\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 n\u00f3i ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c. V\u1ea5n \u0111\u1ec1 gi\u1edd l\u00e0 mu\u1ed1n t\u0103ng th\u00eam 1 usd\/ th\u00f9ng c\u0169ng ch\u1eb3ng d\u1ec5.<\/p>\n

    Gi\u1ea3 s\u1eed c\u00e1c b\u00ean cung d\u1ea7u l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c v\u1edbi nhau \u0111\u1ec3 c\u00f9ng c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ea7u. Khi c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng d\u1ea7u th\u00ec \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cung d\u1ecbch sang tr\u00e1i khi\u1ebfn cho gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u t\u0103ng l\u00ean. Gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u t\u0103ng s\u1ebd ngay l\u1eadp t\u1ee9c \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng t\u1edbi gi\u00e1 b\u00e1n d\u1ea7u tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng v\u00ec b\u00ean mua s\u1ebd t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng mua v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ec3 tr\u00e1nh ph\u1ea3i mua v\u00e0o cao h\u01a1n trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai. Tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf lu\u00f4n c\u00f3 hai tham s\u1ed1 b\u1ea1n ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ec3 \u00fd : “gi\u00e1 giao ngay” v\u00e0 “gi\u00e1 giao trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai”. Khi b\u00ean mua cho r\u1eb1ng gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u s\u1ebd t\u0103ng trong t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai th\u00ec h\u1ecd s\u1ebd t\u0103ng c\u01b0\u1eddng mua c\u00e1c h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng lai, \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng tr\u1ef1c ti\u1ebfp lu\u00f4n t\u1edbi gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u cho d\u00f9 ch\u01b0a th\u00f9ng d\u1ea7u n\u00e0o \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c c\u1eaft gi\u1ea3m.<\/p>\n

    Ngay sau \u0111\u00f3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ebd \u0111i\u1ec1u ti\u1ebft th\u1ef1c t\u1ebf th\u1ebf n\u00e0y:<\/p>\n

      \n
    • Gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u gi\u1ea3m khi\u1ebfn cho c\u00f4ng vi\u1ec7c trong ng\u00e0nh d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf gi\u1ea3m d\u1eabn t\u1edbi thu nh\u1eadp c\u1ee7a nh\u1eefng ng\u01b0\u1eddi l\u00e0m vi\u1ec7c trong l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c d\u1ea7u m\u1ecf gi\u1ea3m -> mua \u00edt h\u00e0ng h\u01a1n.<\/li>\n
    • Gi\u00e1 d\u1ea7u t\u0103ng -> Gi\u00e1 h\u00e0ng h\u00f3a t\u0103ng -> S\u1ed1 b\u00e1n \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u1ea3m -> nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t gi\u1ea3m s\u1ed1 l\u01b0\u1ee3ng s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t -> C\u1ea7n \u00edt d\u1ea7u h\u01a1n.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

      Gi\u1ea3m khai th\u00e1c d\u1ea7u l\u00e0m \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cung d\u1ea7u d\u1ecbch tr\u00e1i nh\u01b0ng gi\u1ea3m nhu c\u1ea7u d\u1ea7u l\u1ea1i l\u00e0m \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ea7u d\u1ecbch tr\u00e1i. \u0110\u01b0\u1eddng c\u1ea7u d\u1ecbch tr\u00e1i b\u00f9 \u0111\u1eafp v\u00e0o \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a \u0111\u01b0\u1eddng cung d\u1ecbch tr\u00e1i khi\u1ebfn gi\u00e1 l\u1ea1i b\u1ecb k\u00e9o xu\u1ed1ng.<\/p>\n

      \"\"<\/p>\n

      V\u1eady gi\u00e1 c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng ph\u1ea3i \u0111\u1ea3m b\u1ea3o \u0111i\u1ec1u ki\u1ec7n:<\/strong><\/p>\n